Writing the Script for the 2007 WGA Strike

Act I begins with dark rumors swirling. Contract talks between the writers and the studios are at an impasse. Will there be a strike soon? Will the writers work without a contract until the Screen Actors Guild and the Directors Guild contracts are up next spring, uniting in solidarity against the vast entertainment conglomerates and shutting the industry down? Will the Directors Guild undercut the WGA bargaining position by agreeing to a contract early? We reach plot point 1 with the November 5th Hollywood Reporter headline: "WGA strike on as talks with producers collapse."

I don't write this stuff, so I can't tell you what happens in Act II. The 2007 WGA strike could be over in days, or it could last 6 months. I'm more interested in Act III, and what it all means in the end.

There have been scripts written in the Hollywood strike genre before. In 1988, the WGA struck for 22 weeks and the SAG for 3 weeks. In 2000, SAG struck against the advertising producers for 6 months. In 2001, WGA and SAG strikes were averted at the very last minute. What did each of these mean to the industry long-term?

In 1988, the impact of the WGA strike was felt first and foremost in the television market:

• The TV season debuted a month late.
• The era of the prime time news magazine shows (like "48 hours") began, as networks looked to diversify beyond scripted dramas and sitcoms.
• Filmed production in the US was an estimated 12% lower than it would have been without the strike. The color negative film market was also down worldwide, with none of the international regions seeing any significant gain in production.
• However, by 1989, production levels returned to a normal growth trajectory.
• There was not a significant impact on the feature film market (though perhaps there would have been if the strike had gone on much longer). There were enough scripts, movies, and releases available to keep supplying the cinemas of the US and the world. We saw no noticeable drop in the color print film market.

The six-month long SAG strike in 2000 specifically targeted the advertising industry, and it had some lasting impacts:

• Advertising production activity plummeted in the US. One indicator of local activity - the annual average number of production days permitted in LA (data source: FilmLA) - dropped almost 30% from the quarter before the strike to the low after the strike. It took five years (2nd quarter, 2005) for local advertising production levels to return to the pre-strike level.
• Film production did drop in the US. However, the worldwide color negative film market hit a high in 2000, with significant gains in Europe, Asia, and Canada. Some of these gains came from advertising productions "running away" from the US. Some came from an increasing number of feature films being produced internationally (as the production infrastructure improved in many countries).

In 2001, a strike by the WGA seemed unavoidable and one by SAG seemed likely. Neither strike happened, but they still had an impact:

• The studios were stockpiling scripts and productions, both for television and for feature films. The data (again from FilmLA) shows production activity peaking before the expected strikes, then a significant drop afterwards, as the studios worked through their glut of content. The slump was bigger for feature films than it was for TV. But in both cases, the disruption was temporary, production levels returning to normal levels within a few quarters.
• The use of reality programming began to boom in 2001, as networks again looked to steer their primetime schedules away from dramas and sitcoms that required scripts that required writers who could strike.

So how will the third act play out in 2007? What will our next entry be in this brief history of entertainment industry strikes?

Let's not minimize the local impact. There will be some. People's livelihoods will be affected, and there will be issues with the TV schedule. Local production levels for feature films and television programming will first surge - with stockpiling - then slump. But in the long run, production levels are likely to return to the path they were on before the strike intervened.

The longer lasting impact of this strike will be in the structural changes it catalyzes in the industry.

Past writers strikes have led the television networks to move their programming mix away from scripted fare. Many of these programming shifts, like reality programming, seem permanent. The 2007 strike could trigger additional programming mix changes, or changes in pilot production, or the outsourcing of some production functions, or some other plot twist that will stick with us.

Unless this strike continues for a very long time, it is unlikely to damage the feature film business. The 1988 strike had a negative impact on filmed entertainment production worldwide, but by 2001, the worldwide production infrastructure had improved enough that productions could flow internationally. Better production facilities led to stronger local film industries. The number of feature films produced worldwide has increased every year since 2001, growing an average of 6% annually (source: Screen Digest).

So - reviewing the script for the 2007 WGA strike - I think it will hold our interest while we are watching, and perhaps we will see some evolution in the television industry in the US, but the ending will seem familiar. The worldwide entertainment industry will continue to move forward until the next sequel in the labor guild strike franchise arrives.